Nielsen goes non-public.

On Tuesday, the 99-year-old TV rankings big introduced an settlement to promote itself to a non-public fairness consortium headed by Brookfield Enterprise Companions and Evergreen Coast Capital Corp.

The PE consortium is shopping for Nielsen at $28 a share, bringing the deal value grand whole to $16 billion.

However the dance to take Nielsen off the general public market was already underway.

Nielsen and the consortium began up their deal-or-no-deal talks earlier this month, after which Nielsen rejected the group’s provide of a $9 billion buyout. Bumping the bid to $16 billion obtained the deal achieved.

With new house owners, Nielsen’s future is not its personal, and it’s not but clear what the consortium is planning. On this case, nevertheless, previous could possibly be prologue.

Elliott Funding Administration, an activist investor and Evergreen Coast Capital Corp. affiliate, has already had a seat on Nielsen’s board for a number of years. Elliott pushed Nielsen to promote its knowledge analytics division NielsenIQ in 2018, splintering the 2 into separate corporations.

Business specialists say historical past would possibly repeat itself.

A non-public fairness group isn’t swooping in as a “white knight” to avoid wasting Nielsen by giving it a bunch of capital, Brian Handrigan, CEO of cross-media DMP Advocado informed AdExchanger.

Though Nielsen does have to put money into innovation, it additionally must generate income on the again of this acquisition so as to pay stockholders again at a 60% premium in contrast with Nielsen’s share value earlier than the talks leaked. To not point out the debt incurred.

The consortium might take a web page out of the PE playbook and proceed chipping away at Nielsen’s core to create a “leaner, meaner Nielsen,” Handrigan stated, with the purpose of making a extra streamlined entity centered on its current specialty, i.e., panel-based TV rankings.

However that plan would require lots of extra funding which may not find yourself being value it.

For instance, the brand new house owners might put money into persevering with to construct up Nielsen One, Nielsen’s cross-platform measurement answer, or presumably double down on reobtaining accreditation from the Media Ranking Council, stated Bharad Ramesh, GroupM’s government director of analysis and funding analytics.

However the clock is ticking. Publishers have already been “diversifying time and assets away from Nielsen,” Ramesh stated. “Nielsen One is nice on paper – nevertheless it’s late.”

For that purpose, the reinvention of Nielsen at this late stage is a doubtful proposition, stated John Hamilton, CEO of CTV efficiency measurement supplier TVDataNow.

A PE consortium is unlikely to “embrace the kind of funding and strategy wanted to develop a brand new foreign money in streaming,” Hamilton stated.

To generate income on the deal, it’s extra possible the brand new house owners will experience on Nielsen’s “money cow enterprise” (see panel rankings) and “unload [whatever] know-how they will,” he stated.

To not point out this 12 months’s upfronts are proper across the nook, and most of the largest programmers, together with NBCU, are already permitting entrepreneurs to transact on alternate measurement suppliers for the primary time. To remain aggressive, Nielsen would wish to have a “clear message” concerning the standing and capabilities of its unified platform forward of the upfronts – and that’s unlikely to occur in a matter of weeks, Handrigan stated.

Even when Nielsen is “sitting on a magic bean” with solutions to cross-screen foreign money challenges, he added, there’s no telling whether or not a spiffed-up Nielsen One would do the trick.

At this level, when Nielsen claims that its cross-platform viewers measurement capabilities are practically prepared for prime time, it sounds just like the “boy who cried wolf,” Handrigan stated.

And when push involves shove, “belief misplaced rapidly is regained very slowly,” he stated. “I’m undecided that may be circled with simply an announcement.”

A “increase of momentum”

Nielsen’s future could also be unsure, however media specialists agree that its acquisition is nice information for the trade as a result of it’ll create extra competitors.

Publishers and content material suppliers have already been signing offers with alternate measurement suppliers to present entrepreneurs what they need, which is a sooner, extra clear cross-platform foreign money.

Nielsen’s buyout is a “increase of momentum” in that route, stated Sean Cunningham, CEO of the Video Promoting Bureau and longtime Nielsen critic.

The deal is “emblematic of the worth positioned on measurement and foreign money” amongst performance-focused entrepreneurs, making it a “harbinger of full-funnel metrics coming entrance and heart” to TV promoting, Cunningham informed AdExchanger.