Elon Musk is without doubt one of the largest-looming figures in tech, however he could within the midst of choosing a struggle he’s not fairly ready for.

In a sequence of tweets throughout Monday and Tuesday, Elon Musk went after Apple, an organization which he views as actively threatening not simply Twitter particularly, however the bigger tech trade as an entire due to its far-reaching powers.

There are three primary causes that Elon Musk is anxious about Apple and feels the necessity to publicly spar with them:

The Downside: Elon says that Apple has ceased practically all advert spending on Twitter. The problem right here is that Apple is not only one other advertiser, however one which has had as a lot as $100 million in advert spend on the platform previously, and has been one in all Twitter’s largest advertisers. This comes within the wake of a report from Platformer that Twitter advert revenues are down 49% in only a week, primarily in freefall.

The Battle: Elon has tried to say that Apple, and different fleeing advertisers “hate free speech,” which can rile up his fanbase, however in sensible functions, “naming and shaming” your advertisers for leaving will not be actually going to do something than cement their determination to depart and trigger others to do the identical. And whereas Elon wields a big assortment of devotees, they’re under no circumstances giant sufficient the place some type of Apple boycott might make a dent within the firm. Twitter wants Apple far, excess of Apple wants Twitter, and Elon’s habits will solely make issues worse between the 2 corporations.

The Downside: Elon says that Apple is now threatening to take away Twitter from the App Retailer, however won’t inform them why. Previous social media platforms like Parler have beforehand been banned for what Apple deemed was an absence of adequate moderation, and Twitter has simply seen its moderation groups gutted by way of a sequence of layoffs and resignations, and that appears to be the doubtless motive for Apple’s hesitancy to let Twitter keep within the retailer.

The Battle: As a result of Apple retains whole management over its App Retailer, there’s primarily nothing Elon can do in an effort to drive Apple to maintain itemizing Twitter. He can get indignant on Twitter about it, but when Apple points precise calls for about content material moderation and hate speech and no matter else they might have issues about, Elon will probably be compelled to select between his dramatic devotion to free speech, or holding Twitter on the App Retailer. There may be unlikely to be a lot middleground, and once more, Apple, not Twitter or Elon, has all the ability on this scenario.

The Downside: Elon has gone after Apple’s 30% lower from all transactions inside apps in its App Retailer, as that will trigger main issues for his grand plan to switch Twitter’s (shortly dwindling) promoting with Twitter Blue subscriptions. Blue has its personal points, like mass impersonation now that verification is being bought for $8 a month, however even in an ideal world with hundreds of thousands of sign-ups, Elon doesn’t need to be paying Apple 30% of his subscription income by way of sign-ups in iOS.

The Battle: In contrast to the earlier two factors, that is one space the place Elon could have some wider assist throughout the general public and tech trade and even the federal government. Apple’s obligatory 30% lower (for apps above $1 million in income) has been scrutinized by everybody from Congress to Meta, and the very best profile struggle has been a lawsuit with Epic Video games, who noticed Fortnite banned from the App Retailer after instituting a means gamers might pay them for in-game objects and get round Apple’s 30% tax. However whereas Elon could have broader assist right here, a authorized battle could be prolonged and expensive, and up to now, the earlier case with Epic principally didn’t go of their favor. If Elon can function a grand unifier throughout all of tech to get folks and firms to rally towards Apple’s lower, he might make some headway there, however Elon being a bridge-builder will not be precisely his persona today. And naturally, by way of all of this, he nonetheless has to even get folks to enroll in Twitter Blue in significant numbers within the first place.

In two of those three circumstances, Apple wields all the ability and Elon successfully can’t to a lot of something besides get very mad at them on Twitter, which can most likely solely make them spend even much less in promoting, and extra more likely to take away the app from their retailer. The 30% lower is a broader problem, however Elon’s Twitter doesn’t even have the subscriber base proper now to make that its major concern, nor does Elon look like he’s going to spend the subsequent few years discovering allies and constructing a lawsuit towards Apple to alter this, even when Apple could certainly must be introduced in line on this realm.

In brief, it’s not a lot excellent news right here, and even the richest man on the planet could also be considerably powerless within the face of the totality of energy of one of many largest firms on the planet.

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