The Fact Curve is a robust visualization software that helps us decide the suitable stage of effort to spend money on experiments and validate our hypotheses (Jeff Gothelf, “The Fact Curve,” February 25, 2023). The curve consists of two axes:
- the Y axis represents the extent of proof supporting our speculation
- the X axis represents the growing effort and scope devoted to the experiment.
1.1) The Land of Wishful Pondering:
Within the preliminary levels of exploring a brand new speculation, we discover ourselves within the Land of Wishful Pondering. With restricted proof, our purpose is to study shortly and inexpensively. This section includes using varied methods to check our product, starting from commentary to optimization. A few of these methods embrace:
- Paper prototyping permits us to create and check doable designs shortly and cost-effectively. BlueDuck Labs reveals us a terrific instance of how simply utilizing easy drawings can collect treasured insights that may have a huge effect in your growth.
Pre-order Web page:
- A pre-order web page permits potential prospects to specific their curiosity in a services or products earlier than its official launch, offering priceless insights into market demand.
- Explainer movies illustrate how a services or products works, even when the product isn’t absolutely useful but. They assist convey the worth proposition and generate early curiosity.
- Dropbox raised $48 million in funding earlier than they even constructed their product. They did this by creating an explainer video that defined what Dropbox was and the way it could work. The video was well-produced and visually interesting, and it helped to boost consciousness of the corporate and its product. The video was a key think about Dropbox’s success, and it’s a priceless software for any startup (Dropbox Raised $48,000,000 With Their Explainer Video, motioncue.com).
- Touchdown web page exams function commercials for our concept, presenting the worth proposition, name to motion, and conversion mechanism.
- Function Pretend experiments create the phantasm of a function by buttons or hyperlinks, resulting in a managed consequence. They assist handle buyer expectations and keep away from disappointment.
- Spotify leveraged this technique to check their speculation that customers are prepared to pay extra for premium audio high quality. By providing an improve possibility and indicating that it was coming quickly, they measured the sign-up price to find out the demand for the function earlier than investing in its growth. (Spotify Is Now Testing Its HiFi Function Forward of Launch, Makeofus.com)
- Concierge MVP includes personally offering all features of the services or products to particular person prospects, fixing their issues one-on-one. It permits us to validate the viability of the providing earlier than scaling it.
- Lease the Runway, for instance, validated its on-line gown rental mannequin by providing an in-person service to school college students, permitting them to strive on attire earlier than renting. This efficient concierge MVP not solely validated the riskiest speculation but in addition engaged prospects, gathering invaluable suggestions to refine the enterprise (Constructing a minimal viable product, Harvard Enterprise Evaluation).
Wizard of Oz:
- Wizard of Oz experiments educate us methods to ship a service with out constructing your entire infrastructure. For instance, we will create an internet site the place customers can buy merchandise, whereas manually dealing with the logistics behind the scenes.
- Zappos, for example, kick-started its journey by showcasing shoe images from native shops on an internet site to gauge demand for an internet retailer. This hands-on method fostered priceless buyer interplay throughout the product design section. Immediately observing actual prospects offers actionable insights surpassing hypothetical surveys and accelerates the identification of real options to buyer issues. (15 methods to check your minimal viable product, The Subsequent Net).
1.2) Constructing Confidence:
Light-weight Experiments As we gather constructive proof by these light-weight experiments, our confidence grows. These methods assist us assess curiosity, validate assumptions, and acquire priceless insights, justifying additional funding in subsequent experiments.
2.1) Downside/Answer Match:
Advancing on the Fact Curve, we transition to the section of discovering drawback/answer match. Right here, we concentrate on testing whether or not our product successfully solves an actual drawback for patrons. The emphasis shifts from “Ought to we construct it?” to “Can we construct a sustainable enterprise with this concept?” Experimentation strategies for this stage might embrace clickable prototypes or Wizard of Oz experiments, the place the entrance finish is absolutely developed whereas the again finish is operated by hand.
With growing constructive suggestions and proof, we enter the realm of product/market match. On this stage, we decide if the answer is viable as a sustainable enterprise and value scaling. The query evolves from “Can we construct it?” to “Ought to we construct it?” Reaching product/market match requires extra substantial funding and rigorous validation by person testing, A/B testing, and different experiments (Product Market Match, productplan.com).
3.1) Cease and Appropriate Your Course:
All through the product growth journey, it’s essential to concentrate to the suggestions and knowledge collected from experiments. If damaging suggestions or flaws in our assumptions emerge, we have to be prepared to cease and reassess the viability of our concept. This second requires potential pivots and even the choice to desert the idea fully and pursue various hypotheses.
3.2) Adjusting the Studying Questions:
As we progress on the Fact Curve, the questions we ask about our speculation change. Within the early levels, we concentrate on drawback/answer match. As we transfer in the direction of product/market match, the emphasis shifts to sustainability and enterprise viability. Every stage calls for a reassessment of an important learnings and the least quantity of labor wanted to accumulate them.